Disney + to overtake Netflix subscriptions within 5 years: analyst

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There was little question that Walt disney (NYSE: DIS) had the potential to change the landscape of streaming video with the debut of Disney + just over a year ago. With early sign-ups, the company had amassed 10 million viewers by the end of the first day of uptime and shocked investors when the service hit its 2024 subscriber targets at roughly the end of its first year of business. activity.

On its Investor Day in December 2020, the company said it now expects subscribers to be between 230 and 260 million by the end of 2024, with its Disney Hotstar service accounting for between 30 and 40 million. % of total viewers. One analyst went even further, saying Disney + will overtake Netflix (NASDAQ: NFLX) in terms of subscribers to win the streaming crown by 2026.

The Mandalorian (Pedro Pascal) and The Child from season 2 of Disney + original The Mandalorian. Image source: Disney.

Simon Murray, senior analyst at Digital TV Research (DTVR), estimates that global Disney + subscribers will reach 294 million by 2026, overtaking Netflix with 286 million. However, forecasts for DTVR’s new subscription video-on-demand (SVOD) platforms indicate that the growth will be largely driven by India, where Disney will absolutely dominate the competition, with 98 million subscribers, surpassing 13. million expected for Netflix.

Disney acquired Hotstar along with other assets it purchased from Fox corporation in 2019. By the time it moved under the Disney wing, Hotstar’s ad-supported level reached up to 300 million monthly active users, giving House of Mouse a large and growing base to tap into. for paid subscribers.

However, not all the news is good. Due to the lower cost of living in India, customers generate less than a third of the subscription revenue generated by US subscribers. According to the DTVR report, Disney + Hotstar will only account for $ 2.62 billion, or 13% of the platform’s estimated revenue, by 2026.

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